Simple Way to Explain Black Swan Theory (Book Review)

You may have heard before the “Black Swan” movie but have you heard of the “Back Swan theory”? At first I thought the movie talks about the “Black Sawn theory". So I went to watch it. But after watching it, it turned out that there are 2 independent subjects. One talks about psychology and another one is economy. :)

The black swan in fact is a book which was written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a practitioner of mathematical finance. The book was published in 2007.  Yes, I know it is old book but I only have a chance to read it now after introduced by my VP in few years back. However, I did not finish reading the book simply because I find this book is too difficult to understand. A very simple idea but the author makes it so complicated for layman to understand. I do not know why. Perhaps this is called “expert”?  or it is probably not meant for layman to read. So if you think you’re layman like me, read my following post will do or else you can go to the bookstore to purchase this book for in-depth understanding.






What is Black Swan Theory?

Let’s understand what is black swan. First of all, it is an event and not a bird! lol. The reason why black swan is used is an event is because before discovery of Australia, all swans were convinced to be white. It was then proven wrong. Does this sound familiar to you? That is what happen to the subprime mortgage crisis. Real estate were convinced to be the best reliable asset but it was then proven wrong again. The black swan is used to explain such phenomena that is unpredictable and creates major impact. The black swan event term was then also referred as the Black Sawn theory or the theory of black swan event.


Can You Predict Black Swan Event?

Well if the answer is can, then it is no longer called Black Swan. :) Probably the answer is yes for the economy in 20 years ago. One could still possible to predict future using statistic based on historical data. However during this 21’s century,  this is no longer be true. Statistics has failed!

2 reasons why statistic has failed. The first reason - based on the statistics calculation or any type of economy’s formula, the probability of such black swan event is always very small and nearly impossible to happen. Another words, the formula has failed to model the economy. The second reason - people have build-in physiological biases that make them unable to predict.  For example, I have been getting salary since day one of working and never going to have pay cut for 10 years. Thus, I predict my future will NOT have pay cut as well regardless of my job performance. The technical term for this prediction is called “Inductive Reasoning”.


What is the solution?

At first when I was reading this book, I expected the author will give a better solution to replace the existing statistic formula to model the economy. Unfortunately, I don’t think the book offers such solution. Offering advice, probably yes. This also makes the whole book is completely useless in my opinion at least to me The reason is I have already known all these facts since the day one I learned about physics:

1. Whatever proven right today, doesn’t mean it will be right forever. It can be proven wrong tomorrow.
2. Whatever proven wrong tomorrow, doesn’t mean it will NOT be proven right again.
3. Whatever proven wrong today, doesn't mean it will be wrong forever. It can be proven right tomorrow.
4. Whatever proven right tomorrow, doesn’t mean it will NOT be proven wrong again.

This books basically in a way tells the same thing that I have learned since my secondary school.:)


What are the takeaways?

You may ask what are the takeaways then? If you ask me, I only have 2. The first thing is you should not deny the black swan events. It happens to everyone. Another important thing to understand is, a black swan event to me might not be a black swan event to you. For example, getting pay cut is a Black Swan event (i.e. unpredictable event ) to me while it could be White Swan event (i.e. predictable event) to you. This is just an example. Black swan event could happen in personal too and not always global.

The second takeaway is plan for the worst case. What could be the black swan event for you? You lost a job tomorrow? You get a job demotion? Property house price bubble burst? Car accident? Something serious happen to your family? Your health problem? You should not be too optimistic but always identify your worst case scenario. Once your worst case is identified, plan for a defense strategy. This is also called "Personal Financial Planning"! :) :) :)


Summary

I honestly do not really understand why this book get the New York Times Bestseller. It is definitely not a book for layman. The content of this book is also questionable as the ideas that being brought up in this book is really nothing new. Everyone knows that  the statistic’s formula is just a prediction and it could be wrong. Not to talk about the human’s greediness, whatever statistic data that you have seen out there could be designed to blind you from the truth too based on their own biasness. Basically smart people will know all these technical analysis based on statistic cannot be trusted and you have to use it at your own risk.

This book has 444 pages with plenty of words and very less graphic or diagram explanation that makes me really no mood to continue reading. The worst part of this book is it explains a very simple idea with 444 pages and I could summarize these 444 pages into one sentence below:

“No one can predict the future, so you have to plan for the worst case and do not over optimistic.”

P/S: I have no intention to shoot the author of this book and I was just giving my opinion from a layman reader’s perspective. If you do think this book is good or beneficial to read especially for layman, I’m happy to hear your opinion.

How Do Insurance Companies Determine Your Life Insurance Premium?

Understanding how life insurance companies determine their premium rates can help you get better life insurance rates!
Life insurance companies work with actuaries and underwriters to calculate the risk of insuring your life. There are several factors they consider that influence these rates. You may find that some of these factors are modifiable in your life. In order to fall into a premium classification that offers better rates, all you have to do is work on those modifiable factors.


Life Insurance Rates

Life insurance is a business, and in order for any business to remain healthy, there is a reasonable amount of profit that must be made. Life insurance companies profit from probabilities. A major factor they consider is your probability of dying soon. Looking at your personal profile, life insurance underwriters determine the probable age you will die. If you’re likely to die soon, they will charge you a higher premium rate. Conversely, if you are likely to live a long life, your premium rates will be much lower. To make it simple, life insurance companies will divide people into at least four different groups based on their personal profile and consequent risk of death. In descending order of preference, these are usually referred to as:

• Best Preferred
• Preferred
• Standard
• Smokers

Factors that determine your life insurance rates

Age
Mortality rates are tools that underwriters use to determine the risk of insuring your life. For this reason, those who are young usually get the best life insurance rates. The older you are, the more likely you are to have health concerns. The premiums for a 20-year old will be significantly higher than premiums for a 65-year old, even in good health. Buy life insurance when you are young and lock those rates in for a long-term period!

Health
The second most important factor that determines your premiums is your health. Those who are young, and in top health, will be offered the Best Preferred rates. By purchasing a level-term life insurance policy at an early age you can lock in those rates for the entire term period.

Most life insurance companies require you to undergo a medical examination that is conducted by a company-appointed medical officer. Being slightly overweight or having a higher than normal blood pressure can knock you down to the next premium rate class. Other factors that are considered are high cholesterol counts, diabetes, any medication taken regularly, and mental health. A company may also look at your family health history to check whether there are any genetic dispositions. Health may not always be an area we can control, but following a good diet, incorporating a daily exercise regime and practicing weight management may help!

Your Occupation
Life insurance companies check out the kind of job you do and your workplace environment. If your job exposes you to dangerous health risks, requires extensive travel, or is considered a high-stress job, be prepared for higher premium rates. A safer job would attract low cost life insurance rates.

Your Hobbies
You may not think it matters, but the type of hobbies you engage in may be considered a risk to your life. Some of these hobbies may include skiing, bungee jumping, rock climbing, scuba diving, car racing, or any other such extreme sports. Engaging in one or more of these activities on a regular basis may cost you in terms of premiums that you will need to pay.

Smoking
If you are a tobacco user, you will qualify for smokers’ rates. Tobacco, in any form, is dangerous to health, and will substantially increase your premium rates by 20 to 30 percent. To give you an incentive to quit smoking, some companies will offer you better rates if you can prove you have quit smoking for at least a year.

Your Credit Card Score
What does your credit score have to with your life insurance rates? The way you handle your money may give life insurance companies a little more insight on your personality traits. If you’re rash with your spending, you may be applying same principle to your health.


It must be noted that if your risk of death is extremely high, a life insurance company holds the right to deny you any coverage. However, you need to remember that just because one life insurance company gives you standard rates, this does not mean that another life insurance company will not hike you up to preferred class. While life insurance companies generally use the same criteria to determine life insurance rates, they may specialize in some areas in order to give them a competitive edge over other companies. For instance, most life insurance companies will charge you higher premiums if your cholesterol is above normal. But, there are some life insurance companies that will combine this fact with other factors in your life, such as your weight, age, job and lifestyle. If all other factors are favorable, you may be eligible for better rates these life insurance companies.

In many cases, it is possible to obtain better premium rates by kicking the smoking habit, losing a few pounds, or even changing jobs or hobbies!


Compare Life Insurance Rates

Online life insurance quote providers have made it easier than ever to compare life insurance rates of top-rated life insurance companies all in one go! Their huge database instantly locates life insurance carriers that specialize in the weak factors of your personal profile, making it easy for you to obtain the best life insurance quote that suits your personal needs!


This is a guest post by Denise Mancini.

Worldwide House Price Trend (2006–2010)

This is the worldwide house prices trend in the past 5 years which includes USA, Japan, Britain, China, Australia, Singapore and Hong Kong. Too bad, there is no data for Malaysia but you can kind of guess that  Malaysia should be somewhere  below China and follow the similar uptrend like China. Let’s check it out the graph below:

Source: www.econmist.com

The house price fell in USA was due to the subprime mortgage crisis in 2006. The house price drops by ~35% after this crisis and has never been recovered until today. By the way, this trend is also similar to Ireland which is not shown in this graph (I don’t want to make the graph too crowded) . As for Japan, the house price has never been recovered after the Japanese asset price bubble from 1986 to 1991. Surprisingly if you look at the house price trend in Britain, it was that badly affected by the subprime mortgage crisis if compare to USA. 

The house price for the rest of countries especially for Asia (except for Japan – i.e. China, Hong Kong, Singapore) and Australia, is moving uptrend. The slight downtrend in 2008 – 2009 was probably due to the stock market crash during that time.  After the stock market crash, investors start moving their target to real estate or property. That is probably the reason why you see the house price has been increasing dramatically after 2009 until today.
 

When is the next bubble burst?

You can kind of expected the house price in the western countries will probably stay flat in the coming years. But what really interesting here is the property market in Asia. Will it be keep going up or is it already at peak? Bloomberg reported Hong Kong is the world’s most expensive place to buy home. 65 million apartments in China are said to be empty creating “Ghost Cities”. Are these obvious enough to tell the property bubble is going to burst soon?


Well, I do not know but if you ask me about Malaysia, I think generally most of the investors in Malaysia have the strong holding power and this makes me think the property bubble bust is unlikely to happen in Malaysia. Could I be wrong? Another very interesting discussion is the property price in Penang and KL seems to have huge gap as compared to the other states or cities within Malaysia. Can the bubble burst only happen within certain states or cities (e.g. Penang and KL)?

So, what do you think? Do you think property bubble burst is forming in your country? What is the next trend?

6 Debt Reduction Tips to Keep You in Sound Financial Health

Debt is a curse. The sooner you put in efforts to reduce the level of debts that you owe, the better it is for you. To reduce your debts substantially, the debt relief programs are of paramount importance. This is nothing but partial or total elimination of debt as well as stalling debt growth. Here is a list of some debt reduction strategies that you can follow to curb your debts significantly.

(1) Don't incur debts

In majority of the cases, you fall into debt because of your own imprudent financial behavior. Don't use your credit cards recklessly. Take out loans only to purchase home or car. Try to live within your means. In fact, if you can successfully limit your spending below your income, you will never fall into a debt situation.


(2) Create a realistic budget

It is very important to build up a realistic budget. You categorize your items of expenditures and then allocate money to each category. Make sure that you don’t spend beyond the amount allocated to each category. This will indeed be helpful to keep a lid on your spending behavior. Your budget should be such that you are able to contribute some money to the emergency fund. The emergency fund can be utilized to meet unintended expenses. 


(3) Be well aware of your liabilities

When you have fallen into debts, you have to be well aware of how much you owe to others. You should be well-acquainted with the monthly payments that you have to make, your interest payments as well as the outstanding balances. Don't default in making payments. Only regular payments on your debts can make you debt free.


(4) Close credit card accounts

It is not a wise financial behavior to keep many credit cards. And, if you already have many credit cards, it would be wise to close as many credit card accounts as possible. The underlying rationale to keep less number of credit cards is to curb the temptation to abruptly spend money using cards.


(5) Make more than minimum payments

Make efforts to pay more than your monthly payments. Use the additional amount of money to pay off your lowest outstanding debts. This helps you pay off your lowest outstanding debts even before the scheduled time period. And, once you have successfully paid off your lowest outstanding debts, switch your target to the next lowest outstanding debts. Persist with this process. This helps you clear off your entire debts in a relatively shorter period of time. 


(6) Seek professional help

Sometimes, it is a good ploy to seek professional help to repay your debts. A debt relief company can negotiate a pay off strategy for you after working with your creditors.


These are indeed smart tips that you can start following from today only. Seriously following these tips, will keep you in good financial condition.


This is a guest post by Nancy.

Open for Guest Posts and Guidelines

I have been receiving many guest post requests in the past and recently getting even more guest post requests in the past few months. I truly appreciate for those of you who interested to write a guest post in my blog. At least this tells that my blog is worth for you to write. Thank you so much! Having said so, I would also like to apologize to you that until today I have NOT even done a single guest post. Sorry, guys!

I usually do not able to get back to you in a timely manner due to busyness of my schedule. I know this is an excuse. So this is my fault then, please forgive me. But I will still definitely get back to you later on with some delays and I usually throw you ton of questions. First, probably I”m new in this guest posting stuff so I have a lot of questions to ask. Second, I want to make sure that whatever you write will be useful to the readers of this blog. Third, I also want to make sure I don’t want to waste your time to write an article that eventually I do not post it here. At the end of the day, I usually do not get any respond from you after that. I guess I have make you pissed off already? Again, sorry if this is the case…

In order to reduce my questions to you, I thought it will be easier for me to come out the guidelines for guest posting in this blog:

[Updated: Feb 7, 2012]: Added perquisite guideline to raise the bar slightly higher to encourage the guest post author to be more interactive and also to encourage the blog commenters to do a guest post. 

[Updated: May 27, 2012]: Added content guideline that the link must be related to personal finance website.. I want ultimately the provided link is the useful one. Sorry for any inconvenient cause.

[Updated: April 29, 2013]: Updated for no link is allowed requirement. Yeah I know, this will turn away you. :)

Prerequisite Guideline

1. You had posted at least 5 relevant comments in this blog. 

Content Guidelines

1. Anyone can do guest post (e.g. readers of this blog, other bloggers and etc.)
   
2. The post cannot be for advertising purpose and must be relevant to personal finance. The post should be focusing on providing useful personal finance tips to the readers.
   
3. Your post must be original and has never been be published anywhere else which including your own blogs or other places.
   
4. Your post does not need to be agree with my line of thinking. I love and enjoy to accept different points of view. 
5. No link is allowed unless I know who you are (e.g. frequent readers of this blog). 
6. Your guest post is preferable written in simple HTML format. If you would want to submit in DOC format, it is also fine but please avoid fancy stuff. :)
   
7. If you have picture, please include your picture in your guest post submission and mark it clearly where the picture or image should be displayed in the content.

Submission Guidelines

1. If you’re okay with all these guidelines above and still interested to do a guest post in my blog, please send your guest post to me at champdog@gmail.com.
   
2. I will try to reply within 48 hours and tell you whether I will accept the guest post or not. I may have questions or requests to the guest post and once we get the consensus, I will post that up as soon as I can. If I reject your post (I hope I won’t), you’re obviously free to use it anywhere as you like.
   
3. Once I posted your article, I will drop an email to you for you to review.

P/S: Hope I don’t turn you guys off! Have fun writing!

High Pay with Low Stress or Growth?

A friend of mine resigned from his company last month. So, I asked him why and his answer was very stressful to work there, and he didn’t see a reason to reject since he got an offer with 30% increment and promotion. According to him, the new company (i.e. which is also his ex-company) is a lot more less stressful than the existing one. So the conversation continues:

Me: Are you doing a same job like what you did previously?

Friend A: Yupe. No difference and I know in-out of everything.

Me: Even with a promotion, will you still do the same thing like what you did last time?

Friend A: Kind of. I'm supposed to get a promotion previously but they didn’t give me. I can perform at that level. No problem for me at all.

Me: So, can I say you will be in comfort zone?

Friend A: Definitely. So lucky I am. Get a raise to do an easy job!

Me: What about personal growth? Will the new job help you to grow?

Friend A: Hmm…  Is that important? I don’t take that into my consideration. I will be stupid if I don’t take this offer for doing something easier and less stressful.

Me: Okay. You’re right. Good luck, man!

So, what do you think? Was my friend making a right decision? There 2 things to consider here:

First, you get a promotion with a same job scope before? Think about it carefully, why a company want to do this? It still makes sense assuming if you’ve already over-performed in a lower grade as what my friend told me.

Second, no growth versus money. Which one is the right thing to decide if you can only choose one? Well, this is not an easy decision especially when it comes to you. I bet most people will choose money and sacrifice growth like what my friend did. If you were my friend, what will you do?

If I were my friend…

I will make sure there is a growth for me before I take the new position. I will start discussing with the hiring manager the opportunity to growth. Keep in mind that doing a same job, doesn’t mean no growth. Assuming after the assessment, I find that there is no growth or no significant growth in this new job,  I will NOT take this offer! Ops. but with one exception, guess what? The exception is there is also no growth in my current or existing job.


Conclusion

One more thing is missing here before you consider to switch job is company stability. You don't want to join that no strong in fundamental. Anyway to make the discussion easier, let’s put aside this into the consideration
.
Well this is what I think. You should make decision based on the following criteria in priority order:

1. High Pay, Low Stress, and High Growth (Ultimate goal, don’t you think so?)
2. High Pay, High Stress, and High Growth (Okay, not that bad. Learning to manage stress is a skill.)
3. Low Pay,  Low Stress, and High Growth (Eventually your growth will translate to money, don’t worry!)
4. Low Pay, High Stress, and High Growth (Don’t worry again, money will come later.)
5. High Pay, High Stress and Low Growth (Try to make use of your high stress to become your growth)
6. High Pay, Low Stress and Low Growth (Yes, only if you really want to be in comfort zone!)
7. Low Pay, Low Stress, and Low Growth (This should be your retirement strategy.)
8. Low pay, High Stress, and Low Growth (Too obvious right? Please avoid this.)

Look at 3,4,5 and 6. Guess some of you may disagree with me?

P/S: Btw, guess what is the top 5 high-paying and low-stress jobs? That is Physical Therapist,  Computer Software Engineer, Civil Engineer, Massage Therapist, and Technical Writer (Provided by: Investopedia).

Check Your EPF(KWSP) Nominations of Beneficiary

If you do not know what EPF or KWSP is, you can safely ignore this post...

Around few years back in 2007 I think, it had been rumours saying that EPF(KWSP) may screw up your nominations when they upgraded their system to the new one. A friend of mine also told me that recently he went to check and found out that his nominations are no longer there. What a crap?

So, I made up my mind to go and check last week. Fortunately, all my nominations of beneficiary were there. BUT, today I look at it carefully again, I notice one of my nominations I/C number is incorrect.  What a crap again? Guess I have to go back to EPF office gain to correct it. :(

This is what you need to do to apply for checking your EPF nominations:

1. Go to the KWSP/EPF office, tell them you want to check for your EPF nominations. They will give you a form.
2. After you fill up the form, go to the queue up again and they will give you a number.
3. Wait for your number, after that they will print out all your EPF nominations for you.

Good luck to you! or else you need to go to the EFP/KWSP office to correct it again like me. You know what, even all your nominations are correct, I suggest you to check again perhaps after 2 years.

P/S: But, I feel like kind of stupid to check this in every 2 years. Is that necessary? Why can’t they do a better job? Some say they do it in purpose, what do you think?