Simple Way to Explain Black Swan Theory (Book Review)

You may have heard before the “Black Swan” movie but have you heard of the “Back Swan theory”? At first I thought the movie talks about the “Black Sawn theory". So I went to watch it. But after watching it, it turned out that there are 2 independent subjects. One talks about psychology and another one is economy. :)

The black swan in fact is a book which was written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a practitioner of mathematical finance. The book was published in 2007.  Yes, I know it is old book but I only have a chance to read it now after introduced by my VP in few years back. However, I did not finish reading the book simply because I find this book is too difficult to understand. A very simple idea but the author makes it so complicated for layman to understand. I do not know why. Perhaps this is called “expert”?  or it is probably not meant for layman to read. So if you think you’re layman like me, read my following post will do or else you can go to the bookstore to purchase this book for in-depth understanding.






What is Black Swan Theory?

Let’s understand what is black swan. First of all, it is an event and not a bird! lol. The reason why black swan is used is an event is because before discovery of Australia, all swans were convinced to be white. It was then proven wrong. Does this sound familiar to you? That is what happen to the subprime mortgage crisis. Real estate were convinced to be the best reliable asset but it was then proven wrong again. The black swan is used to explain such phenomena that is unpredictable and creates major impact. The black swan event term was then also referred as the Black Sawn theory or the theory of black swan event.


Can You Predict Black Swan Event?

Well if the answer is can, then it is no longer called Black Swan. :) Probably the answer is yes for the economy in 20 years ago. One could still possible to predict future using statistic based on historical data. However during this 21’s century,  this is no longer be true. Statistics has failed!

2 reasons why statistic has failed. The first reason - based on the statistics calculation or any type of economy’s formula, the probability of such black swan event is always very small and nearly impossible to happen. Another words, the formula has failed to model the economy. The second reason - people have build-in physiological biases that make them unable to predict.  For example, I have been getting salary since day one of working and never going to have pay cut for 10 years. Thus, I predict my future will NOT have pay cut as well regardless of my job performance. The technical term for this prediction is called “Inductive Reasoning”.


What is the solution?

At first when I was reading this book, I expected the author will give a better solution to replace the existing statistic formula to model the economy. Unfortunately, I don’t think the book offers such solution. Offering advice, probably yes. This also makes the whole book is completely useless in my opinion at least to me The reason is I have already known all these facts since the day one I learned about physics:

1. Whatever proven right today, doesn’t mean it will be right forever. It can be proven wrong tomorrow.
2. Whatever proven wrong tomorrow, doesn’t mean it will NOT be proven right again.
3. Whatever proven wrong today, doesn't mean it will be wrong forever. It can be proven right tomorrow.
4. Whatever proven right tomorrow, doesn’t mean it will NOT be proven wrong again.

This books basically in a way tells the same thing that I have learned since my secondary school.:)


What are the takeaways?

You may ask what are the takeaways then? If you ask me, I only have 2. The first thing is you should not deny the black swan events. It happens to everyone. Another important thing to understand is, a black swan event to me might not be a black swan event to you. For example, getting pay cut is a Black Swan event (i.e. unpredictable event ) to me while it could be White Swan event (i.e. predictable event) to you. This is just an example. Black swan event could happen in personal too and not always global.

The second takeaway is plan for the worst case. What could be the black swan event for you? You lost a job tomorrow? You get a job demotion? Property house price bubble burst? Car accident? Something serious happen to your family? Your health problem? You should not be too optimistic but always identify your worst case scenario. Once your worst case is identified, plan for a defense strategy. This is also called "Personal Financial Planning"! :) :) :)


Summary

I honestly do not really understand why this book get the New York Times Bestseller. It is definitely not a book for layman. The content of this book is also questionable as the ideas that being brought up in this book is really nothing new. Everyone knows that  the statistic’s formula is just a prediction and it could be wrong. Not to talk about the human’s greediness, whatever statistic data that you have seen out there could be designed to blind you from the truth too based on their own biasness. Basically smart people will know all these technical analysis based on statistic cannot be trusted and you have to use it at your own risk.

This book has 444 pages with plenty of words and very less graphic or diagram explanation that makes me really no mood to continue reading. The worst part of this book is it explains a very simple idea with 444 pages and I could summarize these 444 pages into one sentence below:

“No one can predict the future, so you have to plan for the worst case and do not over optimistic.”

P/S: I have no intention to shoot the author of this book and I was just giving my opinion from a layman reader’s perspective. If you do think this book is good or beneficial to read especially for layman, I’m happy to hear your opinion.

Worldwide House Price Trend (2006–2010)

This is the worldwide house prices trend in the past 5 years which includes USA, Japan, Britain, China, Australia, Singapore and Hong Kong. Too bad, there is no data for Malaysia but you can kind of guess that  Malaysia should be somewhere  below China and follow the similar uptrend like China. Let’s check it out the graph below:

Source: www.econmist.com

The house price fell in USA was due to the subprime mortgage crisis in 2006. The house price drops by ~35% after this crisis and has never been recovered until today. By the way, this trend is also similar to Ireland which is not shown in this graph (I don’t want to make the graph too crowded) . As for Japan, the house price has never been recovered after the Japanese asset price bubble from 1986 to 1991. Surprisingly if you look at the house price trend in Britain, it was that badly affected by the subprime mortgage crisis if compare to USA. 

The house price for the rest of countries especially for Asia (except for Japan – i.e. China, Hong Kong, Singapore) and Australia, is moving uptrend. The slight downtrend in 2008 – 2009 was probably due to the stock market crash during that time.  After the stock market crash, investors start moving their target to real estate or property. That is probably the reason why you see the house price has been increasing dramatically after 2009 until today.
 

When is the next bubble burst?

You can kind of expected the house price in the western countries will probably stay flat in the coming years. But what really interesting here is the property market in Asia. Will it be keep going up or is it already at peak? Bloomberg reported Hong Kong is the world’s most expensive place to buy home. 65 million apartments in China are said to be empty creating “Ghost Cities”. Are these obvious enough to tell the property bubble is going to burst soon?


Well, I do not know but if you ask me about Malaysia, I think generally most of the investors in Malaysia have the strong holding power and this makes me think the property bubble bust is unlikely to happen in Malaysia. Could I be wrong? Another very interesting discussion is the property price in Penang and KL seems to have huge gap as compared to the other states or cities within Malaysia. Can the bubble burst only happen within certain states or cities (e.g. Penang and KL)?

So, what do you think? Do you think property bubble burst is forming in your country? What is the next trend?

What are foreigners doing in China?

When I was in China, I was thinking what foreigners are up to in China. So, I search around and  found this survey from a Chinese blogger. Let’s check it out here:

Source: Yan Xishan Blog

By the way, I wonder if I am considered myself as Foreigner in China. The reason is the Chinese usually calls “Foreigner” as “Laowai” which refers to white men or western guys. However, technically speaking I’m not really a “Laowai”. So, I’m not sure if this survey includes me.

Now back to this survey, what do you think? Do you think that is the real survey or it is meant for joke or probably just a guess by the blogger’s owner?


P/S: Happy Labour's Day! Enjoy your long weekend especially you're off on Monday too! :)

Lifespan vs. Income in the Past & Future

This is an interesting video and yet easy to be understood by Hans Rosling (a Swedish medical doctor and satistician) explaining the world progress in the past 200 years ago. Here you go and enjoy! :)



In case you don't get it yet, how big is the bubble represents population size of a countries. Brown or light orange bubbles refer to Europe. Yellow bubbles refer to USA. Red bubbles refer to Asia and Blue bubbles refer to Africa,

There are few interesting things that I get from this video:

• I don't know we die so early in 200 years ago which is below age of 40? Please note that the 40 years old is the top and average it should be (40 + 25) / 2 = 32 years old. Huh? Averagely we can live until 32 years only in 200 years ago? Interesting...

• You may notice very big swing in some of the countries and I guess it is probably due to the War or tragedy (e.g. diseases) that happened to those countries. That's why you see such big swing on the income or the lifespan. You can look at the action replay at the end of this video. OR is it mainly for animation purpose? I could be wrong...

• As what is expected, rich & poor gap in China is demonstrated. Shanghai wealth is like Italy and Guizhou wealth is like Pakistan and etc. I like the way how he splits the bubble... 

• Everyone is moving towards the "Rich & Healthy" direction. So let's extrapolate the graph, everyone will be "Rich & Healthy" in 100 years later? Hmm... how true is this? So, no bell curve? 

• Moving forward, my best guess is probably everyone will be healthy but NOT everyone will be rich. The lifespan will be increased to a certain limit (e.g. 80 years old) but the gap for the income should still be there or maybe even serious in 100 years later. The rich will become richer, the poor will become poorer and the middle class stays where they are and trying to survive. It is probably just shifting the graph (e.g. 40K income become a middle class income). What do you say?

P/S: I love the way how he presented his idea using graphs with animation. Cool isn't it? Apparently he has many other interesting videos too. Have fun to browse around them!